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\u5370\u5ea6\u603b\u7406\u83ab\u8fea\uff08Narendra Modi\uff09\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u6682\u505c\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u8fd9\u4e00\u5916\u4ea4\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u5df4\u5883\u5185\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6253\u51fb\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u6216\u8bb8\u539f\u672c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u80fd\u5e73\u606f\u672c\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5bf9\u5e15\u54c8\u5c14\u52a0\u59c6\u88ad\u51fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6124\u6012\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f15\u53d1\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u65b0\u5fb7\u91cc\u8bef\u5224\u4e86\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u5b98\u5458\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u65b9\u5728\u5411\u5370\u5ea6\u53ca\u672c\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u5c55\u793a\u81ea\u8eab\u6218\u5907\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u636e\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u6218\u6597\u673a\u548c\u9632\u7a7a\u7cfb\u7edf\u51fb\u843d\u4e86\u591a\u67b6\u5370\u5ea6\u6218\u6597\u673a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u67b6\u6cd5\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u7684\u201c\u9635\u98ce\u201d\u6218\u6597\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5821\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u9f13\u52b1\u4e86\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7ee7\u7eed\u901a\u8fc7\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u548c\u5bfc\u5f39\u88ad\u51fb\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u9632\u7a7a\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u6240\u8c13\u7a7a\u4e2d\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u65b9\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u8ba9\u5df4\u519b\u961f\u91cd\u65b0\u76f8\u4fe1\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u5e38\u89c4\u529b\u91cf\u4e0a\u5360\u4f18\uff0c\u5df4\u65b9\u4ecd\u80fd\u5728\u6709\u9650\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u575a\u5b88\u9635\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u961f\u53ca\u5176\u9996\u9886\u963f\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u7a46\u5c3c\u5c14\uff08Asim Munir\uff09\u7684\u516c\u4f17\u5f62\u8c61\u8dcc\u5165\u8c37\u5e95\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u884c\u52a8\u5e2e\u52a9\u5df4\u519b\u65b9\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u56fd\u5185\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u7a46\u5c3c\u5c14\u56e0\u9547\u538b\u4f0a\u59c6\u5170\u00b7\u6c57\uff08Imran Khan\uff09\u7684\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u6b63\u4e49\u8fd0\u52a8\u515a\uff08PTI\uff09\u800c\u9762\u4e34\u8206\u8bba\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u4f0a\u59c6\u5170\u00b7\u6c57\u662f\u5df4\u524d\u603b\u7406\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u8896\u3002\u5df4\u519b\u65b9\u57282023\u5e745\u6708\u51fa\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u4ee5\u8150\u8d25\u6307\u63a7\u902e\u6355\u4e86\u4f0a\u59c6\u5170\u00b7\u6c57\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u88ad\u51fb\u519b\u4e8b\u8bbe\u65bd\u540e\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u9001\u4e0a\u519b\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u519b\u65b9\u8fd8\u57282024\u5e742\u6708\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u516c\u7136\u65bd\u52a0\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5de9\u56fa\u4e86PTI\u4e3b\u8981\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u53c8\u56e0\u8be5\u56fd\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u3002<\/p>\n

2023\u5e74\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4e00\u5ea6\u63a5\u8fd1\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9ad8\u8fbe38%\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7126\u8651\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5f02\u89c1\u30022024\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u5df4\u519b\u65b9\u5f3a\u884c\u9547\u538b\u4e86PTI\u5728\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5821\u7684\u6e38\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u515a\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7a46\u5c3c\u5c14\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u6301\u7eed\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u653b\u52bf\uff0c\u519b\u65b9\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u6570\u5b57\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff08digital terrorism\uff09\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u62a5\u590d\u7ed9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5df4\u519b\u65b9\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u538b\u529b\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u89e3\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u53d7\u4f17\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5df4\u519b\u65b9\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u5851\u9020\u4e3a\u4e00\u652f\u5b88\u62a4\u56fd\u5bb6\u514d\u53d7\u5370\u5ea6\u4fb5\u7565\u7684\u51ef\u65cb\u4e4b\u5e08\u3002\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\u6c11\u8c03\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c96%\u7684\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u672c\u56fd\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u80dc\u5229\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u519b\u65b9\u547c\u5401\u5168\u56fd\u56e2\u7ed3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u58f0\u97f3\u6682\u65f6\u538b\u8fc7\u4e86\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u8feb\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e25\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u7a46\u5c3c\u5c14\u5728\u5370\u5df4\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f3a\u786c\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u201c\u51fb\u8d25\u654c\u4eba\u201d\u9886\u5bfc\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5956\u52b1\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u6587\u804c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u7a46\u5c3c\u5c14\u664b\u5347\u4e3a\u9646\u519b\u5143\u5e05\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u7ee7\u963f\u5c24\u5e03\u00b7\u6c57\uff08Mohammed Ayub Khan\uff09\u4e4b\u540e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u83b7\u6b64\u5934\u8854\u7684\u519b\u5b98\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u57281958\u5e74\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u540e\u9886\u5bfc\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u957f\u8fbe\u5341\u5e74\u3002\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u662f\u5176\u91cd\u5efa\u5a01\u6151\u529b\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u9002\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\u3002\u65b0\u5fb7\u91cc\u539f\u672c\u5bc4\u671b\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u60e9\u7f5a\u6027\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8f85\u4ee5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80c1\u8feb\u7684\u5a01\u6151\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u505c\u6b62\uff08\u5229\u7528\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09\u63a8\u884c\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u654c\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u5374\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u9884\u671f\u7684\u53cd\u9762\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u5bf9\u7a46\u91cc\u5fb7\u514b\uff08Muridke\uff09\u3001\u5df4\u54c8\u74e6\u5c14\u5e03\u5c14\uff08Bahawalpur\uff09\u7b49\u5730\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u636e\u70b9\u53d1\u52a8\u7684\u88ad\u51fb\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u5bf9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u5883\u5185\u7684\u5723\u6218\u7ec4\u7ec7\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9020\u6210\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7834\u574f\u3002\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u65b9\u638c\u63a7\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u60c5\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u2014\u2014\u4e09\u519b\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40\uff08ISI\uff09\u65e9\u5df2\u9884\u5148\u5c06\u5173\u952e\u8d44\u6e90\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u5b89\u5168\u533a\u57df\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7b56\u5212\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u9488\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u56fa\u5b9a\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6613\u53d7\u654c\u65b9\u706b\u529b\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u7269\u7406\u636e\u70b9\u5e76\u975e\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4ecd\u5b8c\u6574\u4fdd\u7559\u7740\u5229\u7528\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u624b\u6bb5\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u5b9e\u65bd\u6218\u7565\u6405\u5c40\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u975e\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5a01\u6151\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u65b9\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u5c06\u9886\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u6311\u8845\u7b56\u7565\u6b63\u5728\u594f\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u6253\u51fb\u4e86\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u7684\u7a7a\u519b\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5df4\u519b\u961f\u603b\u6307\u6325\u90e8\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u6838\u6307\u6325\u4e2d\u5fc3\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8981\u5730\u52aa\u5c14\u00b7\u6c57\u7a7a\u519b\u57fa\u5730\uff08Nur Khan base\uff09\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4e0d\u4ec5\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5e38\u89c4\u62a5\u590d\uff0c\u5df4\u603b\u7406\u590f\u5df4\u5179\u00b7\u8c22\u91cc\u592b\uff08Shehbaz Sharif\uff09\u8fd8\u7acb\u5373\u53ec\u96c6\u8d1f\u8d23\u76d1\u7ba1\u6838\u6b66\u5e93\u5e76\u6279\u51c6\u5176\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6307\u6325\u673a\u6784\u7d27\u6025\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5411\u5370\u5ea6\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u91ca\u653e\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7cbe\u5fc3\u7b79\u8c0b\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u83ab\u8fea\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u201c\u6838\u8bb9\u8bc8\u201d\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u5370\u5ea6\u5bf9\u5df4\u5883\u5185\u7684\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u85cf\u8eab\u5730\u53d1\u52a8\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u5374\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6df1\u611f\u4e0d\u5b89\u5e76\u4ecb\u5165\u8c03\u505c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u8fd8\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u201c\u6838\u51b2\u7a81\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e92\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5371\u9669\u540e\u679c\u2014\u2014\u968f\u7740\u519b\u961f\u5229\u7528\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u65b0\u6b66\u5668\u6253\u51fb\u66f4\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u707e\u96be\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6b63\u6025\u5267\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5370\u5df4\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4f55\u7b49\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5371\u673a\u6c9f\u901a\u6e20\u9053\uff0c\u90fd\u5c06\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8bef\u5224\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u62a8\u51fb\u5bf9\u65b9 \u505c\u706b\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6301\u4e45\u548c\u5e73\u3002\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u6709\u7406\u7531\u58f0\u79f0\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u80fd<\/h2>\n

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\u800c\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u8c0b\u6c42\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u671f\u671b\u4e0e\u5df4\u9677\u5165\u957f\u671f\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5370\u5df4\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u4ecd\u7136\u79c9\u6301\u7740\u201c\u653b\u51fb\u5bf9\u65b9\u5373\u53ef\u83b7\u5229\u201d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u66b4\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u7f13\u548c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u6301\u4e45\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u963f\u57fa\u5c14\u00b7\u6c99\u963f\uff08Aqil Shah\uff09\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u57ce\u5927\u5b66\u6c83\u5c14\u4ec0\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u9662\u517c\u804c\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u8457\u6709\u300a\u519b\u961f\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u6cbb\u300b\uff08The Army and Democracy: Military Politics in Pakistan\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u7f16\u8bd1\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52a1\u300b\u6742\u5fd72025\u5e745\u670823\u65e5\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u539f\u6807\u9898\u4e3aThe Next War Between India and Pakistan Why New Delhi\u2019s Failure to Deter Islamabad Will Fuel Future Violence\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/india\/next-war-between-india-and-pakistan?<\/a><\/p>\n

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