{"id":2424,"date":"2023-04-05T23:48:22","date_gmt":"2023-04-05T15:48:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/?p=2424"},"modified":"2023-04-05T23:48:22","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T15:48:22","slug":"%e8%a7%82%e7%82%b9-%e5%b7%b4%e5%9f%ba%e6%96%af%e5%9d%a6%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e6%9c%af%e6%a0%b8%e6%ad%a6%e5%99%a8%ef%bc%8c%e7%bb%99%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e9%80%a0%e6%88%90%e4%ba%86%e5%a4%9a%e5%a4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/?p=2424","title":{"rendered":"\u89c2\u70b9 | \u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u7ed9\u5370\u5ea6\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u591a\u5927\u538b\u529b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong>\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba
\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong>\u5357\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u8baf
\u539f\u6587\uff1a<\/strong>\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u539f\u6587<\/a>
\u672c\u6587\u51713418\u5b57\u9605\u8bfb\u9884\u8ba19\u5206\u949f<\/div>\n

\u4f5c\u8005 | Frank O' Donnell\u7f16\u8bd1 | \u8881\u6b46\u5ba1\u6838 | \u9648\u5b89\u6f9c\u7f16\u8f91 | \u8bb8\u4e19\u5357 \u9648\u73cf\u53ef \u7f16\u8005\u6309 \u672c\u6587\u65e8\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5370\u5ea6\u5b98\u65b9\u53ca\u5176\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u6218\u7565\u9ad8\u5c42\u9488\u5bf9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u90e8\u7f72\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\uff08\u201cNasr\u201d\/ Hatf-9\uff09\u4e00\u4e8b\u6240\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4e3a\u5370\u5ea6\u63d0\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u5168\u7403\u548c\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u6838\u5a01\u6151\uff08nuclear deterrence\uff09\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u4ece\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u519b\u65b9\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u975e\u5b98\u65b9\u9ad8\u5c42\u5c31\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u4e00\u4e8b\u5206\u88c2\u800c\u6210\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6d41\u6d3e\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u4e2d\u7684\u6587\u804c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u89c4\u5212\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u6218\u7565\u7cbe\u82f1\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u8bba\u8c03\uff0c\u9010\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u56de\u5e94\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u610f\u5728\u4e3a\u81ea\u8eab\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u6838\u5927\u56fd\uff08responsible nuclear power\uff09\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u6838\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\u5360\u9886\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7ef4\u62a4\u5730\u533a\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u9879\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5370\u5ea6\u56fd\u5185\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u8c03\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u4ecd\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u9075\u5b88\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u201d\uff08minimum deterrence\uff09\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u5370\u5ea6\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u6301\u7eed\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u6700\u5927\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5ba1\u67e5\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4f5c\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u5e94\u501f\u6b64\u673a\u4f1a\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u63a8\u8fdb\u6709\u5173\u6838\u519b\u5907\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u6216\u53cc\u8fb9\u534f\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6838\u6001\u52bf\uff08nuclear posture\uff09\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u6587\u732e\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u897f\u65b9\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5bf9\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u601d\u8003\u5e26\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u5357\u4e9a\u7684\u5927\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u754c\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u542f\u53d1\u3002\u6df1\u523b\u89e3\u8bfb\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u9ad8\u5c42\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7eb7\u4e89\u4e5f\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e2d\u65b9\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5357\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\u7279\u6b64\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff0c\u4f9b\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u5370\u5df4\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u89c2\u5ff5\u5dee\u5f02\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6838\u5a01\u6151\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8bba\u8bc1\u601d\u8def\u5efa\u7acb<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u4e24\u9879\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1a\u6700\u9ad8\u5a01\u6151\uff08maximalist deterrence\uff09\u548c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\uff08minimum deterrence\uff09\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u81ea2003\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5ef6\u7eed\u548c\u79c9\u627f\u5176\u4e8e1998\u5e74\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e4b\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\uff08credible minimum deterrence\uff09\u548c\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u201d\uff08no-first-use\uff09\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u606a\u5b88\u6682\u505c\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5370\u5ea6\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u5176\u5c06\u5bf9\u7387\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u91c7\u53d6\u60e9\u7f5a\u6027\u62a5\u590d\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u4e8e2011\u5e744\u6708\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c1460\u516c\u91cc\u5c04\u7a0b\u6218\u672f\u6838\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u53ca\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5148\u524d\u5173\u4e8e\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5357\u4e9a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u63a8\u52a8\u5370\u5ea6\u5c31\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c55\u5f00\u8fa9\u8bba\uff08Kristensen & Norris, 2015\uff09\u3002\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u7528Narang\uff082014\uff09\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u524d\u8005\u6709\u610f\u7387\u5148\u5c06\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4f7f\u7528\u4e8e\u6253\u51fb\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u8fdb\u653b\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u65bd\u538b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\uff08asymmetric retaliation\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4e00\u81f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u662f\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u201c\u5168\u8c31\u5a01\u6151\u201d\uff08full-spectrum deterrence\uff09\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u578b\u6838\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u201c\u51b7\u542f\u52a8\u201d\uff08Cold Start\uff09\u519b\u4e8b\u539f\u5219\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5a01\u6151\u5370\u5ea6\u4ece\u800c\u9632\u6b62\u5370\u5ea6\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u56fd\u571f\u91c7\u53d6\u5e38\u89c4\u6253\u51fb\u884c\u52a8\uff08Iqbal, 2015;Kidwai & Lavoy, 2015\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u6838\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08nuclear conservatism\uff09\u4e0e\u6838\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08nuclear revisionism\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u3002\u662f\u5426\u8981\u91cd\u5ba1\u4fee\u6b63\u5176\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u6838\u539f\u5219\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f53\u4e0b\u70ed\u8bae\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6587\u804c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2011\u5e74\u5bf9\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u5370\u5ea6\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u6838\u539f\u5219\uff08Singh, 2016\uff09\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6838\u539f\u5219\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u9488\u5bf9\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6587\u804c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u9075\u5b88\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95eeAjit Doval\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u4e2d\u5e76\u672a\u63d0\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u5173\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u201c\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u6765\u9610\u91ca\u5370\u5ea6\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf \uff08Iyer-Mitra, 2014\uff09\u3002\u516c\u5f00\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u201c\u5168\u8c31\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u4e3a\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u53ca\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u5185\u90e8\u6587\u804c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5c31\u91cd\u5ba1\u5176\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565\u4e00\u4e8b\u5c55\u5f00\u8fa9\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u5370\u5ea6\u519b\u65b9\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u5370\u5ea6\u9646\u519b\u5219\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u5e38\u89c4\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u4f5c\u6218\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u5883\u5185\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6784\u6210\u5feb\u901f\u5e38\u89c4\u6253\u51fb\u5a01\u80c1\u30022014\u5e74\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u9646\u519b\u8fdc\u666f\u89c4\u5212\u5c40\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u5904\u7684\u4e3b\u7ba1\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u5bf9\u6d89\u5370\u519b\u4e8b\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6838\u5347\u7ea7\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u7b49\u7ea7\uff0c \u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ea7\uff0c\u5373\u5904\u4e8e\u5728\u5176\u9886\u571f\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u6218\u672f\u578b\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u9996\u6b21\u5c06\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6297\u5370\u5ea6\u519b\u961f\uff08Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, 2014\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7a81\u663e\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u9646\u519b\u5bf9\u5176\u5728\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u9886\u571f\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5e38\u89c4\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u524d\u8005\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u201c\u5168\u8c31\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u6240\u9707\u6151\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u975e\u5b98\u65b9\u6218\u7565\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e00\u548c\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e8c\uff1a\u6539\u826f\u6700\u4f4e\u6838\u5a01\u6151<\/h2>\n

\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u6d41\u6d3e\u5728\u575a\u5b88\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u539f\u5219\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u4e0a\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5c31\u5982\u4f55\u56de\u5e94\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u4e00\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u65b9\u9488\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5370\u5ea6\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u6218\u7565\u6d41\u6d3e\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u548c\u201c\u5168\u8c31\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u52a8\u6447\u5370\u5ea6\u4e00\u8d2f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u539f\u5219\u4e0e\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u786e\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u548c\u5e38\u89c4\u5a01\u6151\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u8be5\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u65e0\u9700\u9488\u5bf9\u6b64\u4e8b\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u672f\u578b\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u4e13\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5e94\u8be5\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u6838\u5907\u6218\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u5e38\u89c4\u6253\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u6838\u62a5\u590d\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u62a5\u590d\uff08massive retaliation\uff09\u201d\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u201c\u60e9\u7f5a\u6027\u62a5\u590d\uff08punitive retaliation\uff09\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5e2e\u52a9\u5370\u5ea6\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u5730\u9488\u5bf9\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u4e3a\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u9650\u6838\u6253\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u963f\u59c6\u5219\u7acb\u548c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u62c9\u5408\u5c14\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e0e\u53ef\u80fd\u6784\u6210\u6218\u672f\u578b\u6838\u6218\u573a\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u5730\u533a\u6781\u5176\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u519b\u65b9\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u610f\u5728\u6269\u5f20\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\uff08proactive offence\uff09\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u800c\u8be5\u6d41\u6d3e\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u519b\u4e8b\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u9488\u90fd\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u504f\u79bb\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u4e00\u8d2f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u5730\u533a\u51b2\u7a81\u5347\u7ea7\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u6253\u538b\u5370\u5ea6\u5b98\u65b9\u548c\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u5e38\u89c4\u5a01\u6151\u4e0e\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u547c\u5401\u91c7\u7eb3\u66f4\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd1\u6700\u9ad8\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u65b9\u9488\u3002\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e00\u4e3b\u8981\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u6df1\u5316\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u6253\u51fb\u8ba1\u5212\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u5df4\u63a7\u514b\u4ec0\u7c73\u5c14\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u800c\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e8c\u5219\u65e0\u610f\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540e\u8005\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u519b\u4e8b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u90fd\u627f\u62c5\u7740\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7406\u5e94\u5c06\u52a0\u5f3a\u519b\u5907\u63a7\u5236\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u8be5\u7c7b\u65b9\u9488\u5f3a\u8c03\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u7b7e\u8ba2\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u201d\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53cc\u8fb9\u534f\u5b9a\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u5bf9\u300a\u88c2\u53d8\u6750\u6599\u7981\u4ea7\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\uff08Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty\uff09\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u89c4\u6a21\u3002\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e00\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u9488\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u964d\u4f4e\u53cc\u8fb9\u7684\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u6b66\u5668\u7814\u53d1\uff0c\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u4e3a\u8d34\u8fd1\u3001\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u80fd\u4f53\u73b0\u5370\u5ea6\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u548c\u5176\u5728\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u91c7\u7eb3\u6b64\u7c7b\u65b9\u9488\u5e76\u975e\u6613\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u8be5\u6d41\u6d3e\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u6765\u81ea\u5370\u5ea6\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n

\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4ecd\u9700\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9645\u884c\u52a8\u8bf4\u670d\u6c11\u4f17\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u5219\u6709\u529b\u7684\u9488\u5bf9\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u5982\u82e5\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u518d\u5ea6\u8d44\u52a9\u9488\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\uff08\u59822001-2002\u5e74\u95f4\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u6709\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u8be5\u7c7b\u65b9\u9488\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e09\uff1a\u6216\u91c7\u53d6\u6700\u9ad8\u5a01\u6151\u65b9\u9488\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6d41\u6d3e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u7c7b\u6d41\u6d3e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u5177\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u65b9\u9488\u3002\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u524d\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u5458\u53ca\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d41\u6d3e\u3002\u8be5\u6d41\u6d3e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u5bfc\u5f39\u90e8\u7f72\u52a0\u4e0a\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u6240\u6784\u6210\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6218\u7565\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5df2\u975e\u5370\u5ea6\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u6838\u539f\u5219\u6240\u80fd\u9002\u7528\u3002\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e09\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u65b9\u9488\u5305\u62ec\u53d6\u6d88\u201c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u201c\u7075\u6d3b\u62a5\u590d\u201d\u7684\u65b0\u8def\u5f84\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u65bd\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u201d\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5bf9\u5bf9\u65b9\u9996\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f5c\u51fa\u66f4\u76f8\u79f0\u548c\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6838\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4e43\u81f3\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u7075\u6d3b\u4f7f\u7528\u201d\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u610f\u5728\u4f7f\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u539f\u5219\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u4e0a\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u5ea6\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8be5\u6d41\u6d3e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u547c\u5401\u5728\u6838\u5f39\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u4e0a\u5360\u9886\u7edd\u5bf9\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6452\u5f03\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u5a01\u6151\u201d\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u66f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u6700\u9ad8\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u5982\u82e5\u5370\u5ea6\u671d\u6700\u9ad8\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3e\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e0d\u80fd\u62b5\u6d88\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u6838\u5a01\u6151\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u6574\u4e2a\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8be5\u6d41\u6d3e\u53ea\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5f53\u524d\u5c40\u52bf\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u8d77\u5230\u9002\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bd1\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u8881\u6b46\uff0c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u4e3a\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u6b96\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u540e\u6b96\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u8f6c\u8f7d\u81ea\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f72023\u5e743\u670830\u65e5\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u539f\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\uff1a\u300a\u53cd\u601d\u5357\u4e9a\u6700\u4f4e\u6838\u5a01\u6151\uff1a\u5370\u5ea6\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u6218\u672f\u578b\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u90e8\u7f72\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u300b\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u7f16\u8bd1\u81eaContemporary Security Policy\u7b2c38\u5377\uff0c\u7b2c1\u671f\uff0c2017\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c78-101\u9875\uff0c\u539f\u6807\u9898\u4e3aReconsidering Minimum Deterrence in South Asia: Indian Responses to Pakistan\u2019s Tactical Nuclear weapons\u672c\u671f\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u8bb8\u4e19\u5357 \u9648\u73cf\u53ef<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5370\u5ea6\u610f\u5728\u4e3a\u81ea\u8eab\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u6838\u5927\u56fd\uff08responsible nuclear power\uff09\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u6838\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\u5360\u9886\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7ef4\u62a4\u5730\u533a\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-2424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-32","tag-33"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nyyjtx.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}