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\u672c\u6587\u51712615\u5b57\u9605\u8bfb\u9884\u8ba17\u5206\u949f<\/div>\n

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\u201d\u77e5\u4e4e\u8fd9\u6761\u5bf9\u5317\u7ea6\u73b0\u72b6\u548c\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u547c\u5e94\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u897f\u65b9\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u897f\u6b27\u793e\u4f1a\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8fa9\u8bba\u3002\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u9080\u8bf7\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba8\u8bba\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u5426\u8be5\u89e3\u6563\u5317\u7ea6\u3002\u8be5\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u548c\u6838\u5fc3\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\u201c\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7d27\u7f29\u6311\u6218\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u88ab\u89e3\u6563\uff1f\u201d\u53d7\u9080\u53c2\u52a0\u8fa9\u8bba\u7684\u6765\u81ea\u6cd5\u56fd\u5df4\u9ece\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff08The Foundation for Strategic Research\uff09\u7684\u5361\u7c73\u5c14\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u5fb7\uff08Camille Grand\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d27\u7f29\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u89e3\u6563\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u683c\u5170\u5fb7\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\uff08\u8ba8\u8bba\uff09\u5317\u7ea6\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u5f97\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u5317\u7ea6\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u5b97\u65e8\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201d\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7J\u00b7\u5df4\u585e\u7ef4\u5947\uff08Andrew J.Basevich\uff09\u56de\u5fc6\u8d77\u4f0a\u65af\u6885\u52cb\u7235\uff08Lord Ismay\uff09\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u5373\u5317\u7ea6\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u201c\u628a\u82cf\u8054\u4eba\u6321\u5728\u5708\u5916\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5446\u5728\u5708\u5185\uff0c\u538b\u5236\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u5f3a\u70c8\u4e3b\u5f20\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u79bb\u5f00\u5317\u7ea6\u4e86\u201d\u3002\u66fe\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u4e0a\u6821\u7684\u5df4\u585e\u7ef4\u5947\u5f3a\u8c03\uff1a\u201c21\u4e16\u7eaa\u7edf<\/p>\n

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\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65b0\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5317\u7ea6\u63d0\u4f9b\u591a\u5c11\u519b\u4e8b\u6216\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u901a\u8fc7\u6b27\u5b89\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4f1a\u53d7\u76ca\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u201d\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u8c08\u5230\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u65f6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u540e\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u201c\u5f3a\u4eba\u201d\u666e\u4eac\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e4b\u524d\uff09\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u739b\u4e3d\u00b7\u57c3\u5229\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u6d1b\u7279\uff08Mary Elise Sarotte\uff09\u7684\u300a\u4e00\u5bf8\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u51b7\u6218\u50f5\u5c40\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u300b\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u8fde\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u662f\u201c1989\u5e74\u81f31999\u5e74\u8fd9\u6bb5\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u671f\u5317\u7ea6\u6269\u5f20\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u6700\u597d\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0e\u8bba\u8bc1\u201d\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u739b\u4e3d\u65e9\u671f\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a1989\u5e74\uff1a\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u91cd\u5efa\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6311\u6218\u300b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u88ab\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u8bc4\u4e3a2009\u5e74\u5173\u4e8e\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4e66\u7c4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u8428\u6d1b\u7279\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u7f8e\u4fc4\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u5728\u3002\u201c\u67cf\u6797\u5899\u5012\u584c\u540e\uff0c\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u8d1d\u514b\uff08James Baker\uff09\u662f\u8fd9\u822c\u5411\u82cf\u8054\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7c73\u54c8\u4f0a\u5c14\u00b7\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\uff08Mikhail Gorbachev\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u60f3\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4fc4\u653e\u5f03\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5317\u7ea6\u4e1c\u6269\uff0c\u4e00\u5bf8\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u3002\u8fd9\u573a1990\u5e74\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u51e0\u4e4e\u7acb\u5373\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u4f46\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u6709\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u653e\u5f03\u4e86\u66fe\u7ecf\u638c\u63a7\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u5374\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u57281991\u5e7412\u6708\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\u540e\u3002\u534e\u76db\u987f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5927\u83b7\u5168\u80dc\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c3d\u60c5\u4e1c\u6269\u3002<\/p>\n

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